Defence analysts have raised doubts over the recent attack in Pahalgam, a hill station in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), which resulted in the deaths of 26 tourists, including a navy officer.
Some experts suggest the attack could be a “false flag operation,” a tactic in which one group or country carries out an attack but blames another, often to manipulate public opinion or justify political or military actions.
In this case, the immediate accusations against Pakistan, coupled with the timing of the attack, have led some to believe it could be an orchestrated effort by India to serve its strategic goals, either by justifying further military measures or diverting attention from internal issues.
Pakistan’s Perspective: Common Sense Defies Allegations
However, common sense cannot accept the notion that Pakistan would undertake such an operation. Given the current geopolitical climate and the economic and political challenges Pakistan faces, it is highly unlikely that the country would risk escalating tensions with India by engaging in an attack of this magnitude. Pakistan is already dealing with several internal issues and cannot bear the load of such an adventure, especially with the international scrutiny it would attract.
Casualties and Impact: The Scale of the Tragedy
At least 17 people were injured in the shooting on Tuesday in the Baisaran valley of Pahalgam. Among the dead were 25 Indians and one Nepalese national, according to the police. The attack is considered the deadliest assault on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, shattering the relative calm in Kashmir, where tourism has boomed in recent years as the anti-India insurgency has slowed.
Defence Experts Question Indian Media’s Immediate Response
Brigadier (retd) Ahmed Saeed Minhas criticized Indian media for blaming Pakistan without evidence, pointing out that the attack occurred 400 km inside IIOJK. He referred to Pakistan’s restraint in 2019 when it returned Indian pilot Abhinandan safely as an example of mature diplomacy.
Raising Concerns: Is India’s Reaction Strategic?
Brigadier (retd) Rashid Wali also questioned India’s immediate blame game, warning that such actions could backfire, referencing the Balakot episode in 2019.
International Reactions: A Global Outlook on the Attack
Former senator and foreign affairs expert Mushahid Hussain Syed condemned India’s habit of blaming Pakistan following attacks. He described this as an “automated response” from the Indian government, adding that incidents like the Pahalgam attack fit into this routine of shifting blame without proper investigation.
National security expert Syed Muhammad Ali argued that India’s accusations serve to defame Islam, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri people while distracting from domestic issues. He also suggested that the operation could be a way to reduce international pressure on India, particularly in relation to trade matters with the US.
Pakistan’s Official Response: Condolences and Concern
Pakistan expressed sorrow over the tragic incident, with Foreign Office spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan offering condolences to the victims’ families. “We are deeply saddened by the loss of lives in the attack,” he said, extending wishes for a speedy recovery to the injured.
Claims of Responsibility: Who’s Behind the Attack?
A group called “Kashmir Resistance” claimed responsibility for the attack. The group voiced concerns about the demographic changes in the region, referencing the settlement of over 85,000 “outsiders” since India revoked Kashmir’s special status in 2019. This move allowed outsiders to obtain jobs and land in the region, which has strained ties with Pakistan.
Rare Attacks on Tourists: A Look Back at Past Incidents
Tourist attacks in IIOJK are rare. The last deadly incident occurred in June 2024, when an attack on a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims caused it to plunge into a gorge, killing at least nine people and injuring 33.
Global Condemnation: World Leaders React
In the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to continue fighting terrorism and emphasized that the attackers’ agenda would not succeed. International leaders, including US President Donald Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, condemned the attack and expressed support for India.